Export competitiveness and trade dynamics of indian maize: A Markov chain and comparative advantage analysis

Abstract

Indian maize exports have grown, particularly in Southeast Asia, necessitating an assessment of their competitiveness and trade dynamics. This study analyzes export performance using UN COMTRADE data (2012– 2023). Markov chain analysis was employed to examine the trade direction and market stability of major importing countries, including Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Nepal. The findings reveal that Malaysia exhibited the highest retention probability (78 per cent), while Oman had zero retention, indicating an unstable trade pattern. Projections up to 2028 suggest that Vietnam and Bangladesh will remain the dominant markets, though their shares are expected to decline slightly. Further, export competitiveness was assessed using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Vollrath’s Revealed Competitiveness (RC) indices. The RCA values indicate that India’s maize export advantage fluctuated over the years, showing strong performance until 2014 but declining thereafter. The study highlights the need for strategic policy interventions to enhance India’s maize export competitiveness, ensuring sustainable trade growth in the global market.