Dynamics of crop diversification, area allocation behaviuor and determinants of output growth in north Gujarat

Abstract

The agricultural sector in North Gujarat has shown significant development, contributing substantially to India’s production of food grains, oilseeds, and spices. This study aims to assess the compound growth rates and instability indices of area, production, and productivity of major crops in North Gujarat from 1982–83 to 2017–18. Further, it evaluates crop diversification using the Herfindahl Index (HI) and Modified Entropy Index (MEI), analyzes changes in cropping pattern through Markov Chain Analysis, and identifies determinants of output growth via the decomposition method of Minhas and Vaidyanathan (1965). Data were collected from the Directorate of Agriculture, Government of Gujarat. Results revealed moderate specialization across food grains, cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and commercial crops, with the Herfindahl Index ranging from 0.583 to 0.676 and MEI values close to 1, indicating a gradual trend towards specialization. Markov analysis showed high crop stability in pearl millet (79.60%), wheat (74.00%), followed by maize (39.60%) and cotton (74.30%), whereas crops like rice and gram exhibited low retention. Decomposition analysis indicated that yield effect was the major contributor to output growth (48.61%), followed by area effect (14.27%) and interaction between area, yield, and crop pattern (13.17%). The findings emphasize the need for further diversification and technology-driven productivity enhancements to ensure long-term sustainability and stability in the agricultural sector of North Gujarat.