Probability of identifying high yielding hybrids from preliminary yield trials in maize (Zea mays L.)

Abstract

 Preliminary yield trials (PYT) are important
and basic trials wherein a large number of test hybrids/
genotypes are evaluated by the breeder to identify superior
genotypes and advance them to the next round of
evaluation. In all crop improvement programmes, every
season PYT’s are conducted with different objectives.
However, for planning a research programme and
submission of a proposal, one has to mention the
deliverables i.e., at the end of PYT how many genotypes
will be identified. To understand this, we compiled the
data of PYT of new experimental hybrids at AICRP on
maize, Dharwad centre during 2023 and 2024. Based on
the criteria of 5% yield superiority over the best check
initially 70 hybrids were selected from among the 602
test hybrids across two years accounting to 11.6%.
Further enhancing the stringency of selection to 10%
superiority, the probability of identifying significantly
superior hybrids was only 7% across two years. This
information holds the key for deciding and planning on
development of new experimental hybrids and the
probability of success